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Latest VAERS estimate has 388,000+ Americans killed by COVID “vaccines”

Read Mercer Schuchardt

Associate Professor of Communication

Wheaton College

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Wheaton, IL 60187

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“The Reality is that all is vanity, and the Truth is that everything is a gift of God. Reality prevents the Truth from being an evasion, while the Truth prevents Reality from being hopeless.”

  • Jacques Ellul, Reason For Being (Meditations on Ecclesiastes)

From: Steve Kirsch’s newsletter <stevekirsch@substack.com>
Sent: Tuesday, December 14, 2021 11:42 PM
Subject: Latest VAERS estimate: 388,000 Americans killed by the COVID vaccines

An independent derivation of the VAERS URF using the CMS death data leads to a URF of 44.64 which then leads to a 388K excess death estimate. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Latest VAERS estimate: 388,000 Americans killed by the COVID vaccines

An independent derivation of the VAERS URF using the CMS death data leads to a URF of 44.64 which then leads to a 388K excess death estimate.



Steve Kirsch
Dec 15

My estimate of the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) at 41 was based on anaphylaxis rates reported in the Blumenthal paper published in JAMA.

I have argued that the anaphylaxis rate is an appropriate number to use to (under) estimate deaths because I believed that deaths would be less reported than anaphylaxis to VAERS for two reasons: 1) usually lacks the time proximity to vaccination, 2) the person seeing the death may not know the vaccination status of the victim and may not technically be required to report the death.

Some people have quibbled with that assumption, including my friend Professor John Ioannidis, who argued that there is no evidence that that is true and it could be the other way around. It’s a fair point and I told John it’s only an estimate and I’m happy to modify it when we have more data.

That day has arrived courtesy of Wayne at VAERS Analysis.



Wayne did a URF computation using death data in CMS. This overcomes any objections about the validity of using anaphylaxis rates as a proxy for death rates.

The VAERS URF he computed was 44.64.

This seems reasonable to me. It’s really not far from the 41 I calculated.

Also, Wayne subsequently looked at the numbers for 9 states. The average value was 40, not far from the 41 I calculated from anaphylaxis.

I had one of my team members double check his numbers. No mistake.

Now, let’s see what that means.

As of Dec 14, 2021, there are 9,136 deaths reported into VAERS. If we subtract out more than twice the total number of deaths reported in any previous year (to be super conservative about estimating background deaths):



So our new best estimate of the number of “excess deaths” caused by the vaccine is 388,000. Because there isn’t a plausible mechanism of excess death other than the vaccine (certainly our “always vigilant” CDC has never suggested an alternate cause), the process of elimination leads us to conclude the obvious: that these excess deaths were, in fact, caused by the vaccine.

This should really be a surprise to anyone paying attention to the clinical trials.

For example, in the Pfizer trial, you were much more likely to die if you got the vaccine than if you got the placebo. They simply forgot to mention that in the abstract of the paper (and they were incapable of accurately counting the number of deaths in each group as well). In short, the vaccine is a killing machine.

As the clinical trial showed, it was more likely to kill you than to save you. America still refuses to actually acknowledge that fact.

388,000 dead Americans is simply stunning

Mass Grave Stock Video Footage - 4K and HD Video Clips | Shutterstock

Today, our best estimate of vaccine fatalities using the VAERS data is that the US Government is responsible for killing 388,000 formerly healthy Americans.

No one in mainstream media will dare talk about this. They won’t even ask the question. Not a single reporter.

Nobody in Congress will discuss it either. I tried to bring this information to the attention of Congressional staff, but they have ignored my requests.

Of course the FDA and CDC have no comment other than they “disagree” with me. They won’t say why. Wow. We have a discrepancy of 388,000 Americans dead and they won’t even say why I got it wrong.

I’m guessing that they can’t say why because I used their numbers (they maintain VAERS and CMS) and their methodology and there were no math errors. So they have to go with the “hand waving” argument that “we disagree” since they can’t go with facts, evidence, data, or methodology errors.

As for all the bogus arguments about VAERS and causality that are used by the “so-called fact-checkers” to attack my work, I thoroughly dismantle those in my 63-page article. That is why none of the people at the FDA or CDC are willing to talk on the record to me: because I know how to dismantle their bogus excuses for looking the other way. They won’t talk to any of my associates either. They just don’t want to hear it.

Let me know in the comments if you find an error.

Finally, I know some of you are still unconvinced by all the data including the stunning athlete data. I’m OK with that. I just have one request. Please consider sharing this article with your social network before you get your booster. OK?

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