From Vladimir Golstein (on Facebook):
Trump’s Preemptive Strike Against Neocons, or Is He Playing Chess?
Granted that Trump is not the most educated, sophisticated, or knowledgeable person on the planet, he is surely very savvy, and people-smart. Just the way he zoomed through Republican nominations and won the 2016 campaign testifies to his tremendous skills and certain intelligence, that his myopic critics refuse to acknowledge.
So in light of that, how to interpret his decision to assassinate the top notch Iranian General Soleimani?
What follows is pure conjecture – -just based on my intuition and certain patterns of Trump’s past behavior.
We remember how he decided to bomb Syria on the basis of some fake accusations of chemical attack. He had everyone in his family, let alone in foreign policy establishment bugging him to strike. So he did. But after that he did not escalate. In other words, by his aggressive action he immediately shuts the opposition and establishment up. He sends a message to his base that he can be tough, he sends the message to Pentagon, that he wants them to be strong. But he does not push it further. By his instincts, he does not want a big international confrontation. He is not a sicko like Hillary or Albright. In other words, he wants his cake and he wants to eat it too.
Why can’t the same pattern apply here. The Neocons, or let call them The Netaniahu party of the State Department and Sick Tanks establishment are immediately disarmed. They can be gloating, or blaming the victim, or demonizing Iranians, and doing their usual nonsense, but they are off his back. Military can walk proud, his base is happy, since their man has shown that he is a top dog. And last but not least, Democrats are incapacitated. All they can do is to bleat — in the form of Liz Warren — that yes, Soleimani was an awful man, but there should be procedures and consultations. Something that most of Americans except the intelligentsia pussy-hatters would just pooh-pooh. In other words, impeachment is neutralized, there is no serious foreign policy challenges –since the opposition of the war-mongering democrats has no teeth, so Trump is in the driver seat.
Granted, all that was accomplished by the murder of a human being, who was highly influential and admired in many quarters, and granted that it can escalate into total chaos, but if it does not, then indeed, Trump has his cake and eats it too. A gamble? Yes. Cynical murder? Yes. But that’s politics.
In other words, if Iran bites the bullet, if neither Netaniahu nor Pompeo provoke further violence — then Trump might succeed in getting what he wanted: — reducing army’s exposure to harm’s way, showing that he is a top dog and so is his military, shutting up the opposition (from both neocons and neoliberals) and sailing into 2020 White House.
As I said, this is just an attempt of non-linear, non-partisan analysis. I prefer to understand something, rather than partaking in echo chambers or showing off my impeccable virtues.