From Jonathan Simon:
Here is the EP/VC Pres table updated to yesterday evening (note the slowly shrinking redshift of the national EP/VC).
Now the caveat: It is vitally important to understand, for anyone keeping score at home, that a number of states, including two critical ones, span two timezones. This is of critical importance because it means that the EPs are not publicly posted until a full hour after the polls have closed in much of the state and much of the votecount has come in. This in turn means that Edison has pretty much all of their Quick Counts, and enough overallvotecounts, that their algorithm is capable of adjusting the poll results to near congruence with the votecounts prior to first public posting.
Please make sure you understand this fully.
Unfortunately among the split-zone states we find FL and MI, both of which have a tiny part of their territory in a more western timezone, allowing most of the adjustment process to take place before we are able to screencapture anything. This goes a long way to explaining the apparent absence of red shift in Michigan and a relatively modest looking red shift in Florida.
Of the states that we are most closely scrutinizing, it should therefore come as no surprise that FL and MI look “cleaner” that NC, PA, OH, and WI. This must be taken with a big shaker of salt (i.e., FL and MI may be dirty as hell and are almost certainly a lot dirtier than they look on the EP/VC table)–though it may be a bit much to explain publicly, especially when first introducing this data to the unwashed.
As if it wasn’t tough enough. — Jonathan