Clinton WON these four swing states, according to the exit polls—and then went on to “lose” them. (Sound familiar?)

2016 Presidential Election Table

Posted on November 10, 2016 by Theodore de Macedo Soares

According to the exit polls conducted by Edison Research, Clinton won four key battleground states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) in the 2016 Presidential Election that she went on to lose in the computerized vote counts.  With these states Clinton wins the Electoral College with a count of 302 versus 205 for Trump.  Clinton also won the national exit poll by 3.2% and holds a narrow lead in the national vote count still in progress.

Exit polls were conducted in 28 states. In 23 states the discrepancies between the exit polls and the vote count favored Trump. In 13 of these states the discrepancies favoring Trump exceeded the margin of error of the state.

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

Clinton’s wins in the exit polls of four key battleground states are highlighted in blue. Trump’s wins in the computer vote counts in these same states are highlighted in red.

[1] Exit polls (EP) conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN shortly after the closing of state polls and downloaded by TdMS.  Edison Research conducted one national EP and EPs in 28 states. As these first published exit polls are altered/adjusted to conform to the unverified computer vote counts, the discrepancies shown above are adjusted to near zero in the final EPs.

[2] New York Times reported vote count.  Most states with 99%-100% completed vote counts.  Washington at 72% and Utah at 78% are the exceptions. Last updated on November 10, 2016.  http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

[3] The margin columns subtracts the Clinton totals from Trump’s.  A Trump win is shown by a positive sign and a Clinton win by a negative sign.

[4] Note that the Margin of Error (MOE) is for the differences between the two candidates (at 95% CI). This MOE is about double the usual MOE for each candidate. MOE calculated with multinomial formula discussed in sections 2 and 4 in:  Franklin, C. The ‘Margin of Error’ for Differences in Polls. University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin. October 2002, revised February 2007. Available at:  https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf

 

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