From Chris Jonsson:
This is where we stand
(as of 5/29)
Greetings, my friends! (And greetings, my trolls, too, I s’ppose)
A good friend suggested to me that I should write a new update & general overview of the delegate math and I thought that was an exceptional idea, so — here we are. If you find yourself wondering, “wait, where exactly are we, again?” then, you’ve come to the right place & this article is for you! And I’m glad that you’ve asked — I’ll show you, follow me!
A Brief Summary of
What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention
First, let’s go over the basics, again —
The first thing that everyone should understand is that Hillary Clinton will not be clinching the nomination before the convention, despite what the talking heads are saying! They are vipers & deceivers — I suspect that they weren’t hugged enough or something. Anyway — while they talk away, I will show you the cold, hard math that proves my point.
A candidate needs 2,383 delegates to clinch the nomination. This is because there are 4,765 total total delegates (4,051 pledged delegates + 714 “super-delegates”) and 2,383 is half+1 of that number. If a candidate had that number, there would be no way for another candidate to catch up.Neither Clinton or Sanders will be getting that number of delegates before the convention. This is because:
SUPER DELEGATES DO NOT VOTE UNTIL JULY 25Th
Now, since the super-delegates don’t vote until the national convention on July 25th (also, they can switch as many times as they’d like, until then), the only delegates that are really available right now are the pledged delegates. Since the pledged delegates are the only real numbers we have (at the moment), those are what we should pay attention to.
Now, the delegate totals (as estimated by the Green Papers) stands at…
To get to 2,383 that clinches the nomination, Clinton would need…
2,383 – 1,770 = 613
Clinton would need to secure 613 pledged delegates out of the 781 remaining, which means that she would need…
613 ÷ 781 = 0.7848 or about 78.5%
Clinton would need to win 78.5% of the remaining contests and that — obviously — is not going to happen. Of course, Sanders won’t get to that number with pledged delegates alone, either — that means that both candidates will be going to the national convention in Philadelphia with less than 2,383.
Neither candidate will have won before the national convention and — for better or for worse — the super delegates will decide who the democratic nominee will be.
So — where are we, exactly?
Potentially, each candidate can still secure the majority of pledged delegates, which is 2,026, before July 25th. Our goal, therefore, is simple: to win as many pledged delegates as possible before the national convention! Let’s take a look at the numbers we’re working with, now…
Again, the total, as it stands right now (5/28) is thus:
So, adding each candidates totals together, we arrive at the total delegates won, so far…
1,770 + 1,500 = 3,270
3,270 delegates awarded, so far — and Sanders has taken 1,500 of them, which means…
1,500 ÷ 3,270 = 0.4587 or about 45.9%
…which means that Bernie Sanders, thus far, has 45.9% of the pledged delegates — and Clinton stands with 54.1%.
Please continue reading here: