Exit polls in Florida show Democrat way, way ahead in race for governor

NAPLES, Fla. – The Naples Daily News asked local residents how they voted at polling precincts in Collier and south Lee counties. We asked about these races and amendments: Estero incorporation, Florida governor’s race,  Collier County School Board District 3 race and Amendment 2. Here are our unofficial exit polling results.

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One thought on “Exit polls in Florida show Democrat way, way ahead in race for governor”

  1. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

    Once again, the mantra must be repeated: The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to take a close look at the exit polls. The unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, so we must look at the adjusted exit poll (national, state, governor) for clues. The Florida election was 2010 deja vu. Scott barely won the bogus recorded vote by 1.2%, while Crist won the True Vote by 4.0%.

    This is the direct link to the 2014 Florida Governor True Vote analysis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=841488888

    In order to analyze the 2014 Florida Governor race, I have created the spreadsheet It contains the following worksheets (the sheet names are in quotes):
    – 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
    – 2010 Florida Exit Poll (‘2010 FL EP’)
    – 2014 Florida Exit Poll (‘2014 FL EP’)
    – 2014 County Vote vs. 2010 Vote (“Counties’)
    – 2014 True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

    There is a distinct pattern which keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. That is a fact; the pollsters admit it, but claim that they do it to correct the polls. The assumption is that the recorded vote count is pristine and that there is no fraud. At least that is what the pollsters and pundits would like you to believe. But there is no longer any doubt: elections are routinely fraudulent.

    In order to adjust the exit poll to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. All other crosstabs must be adjusted. I have stated this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books.

    2014 NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
    This sheet contains a selected set of crosstabs (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.6% of the recorded vote because it was forced to match the vote. The exit poll margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of a 0.6% deviation is close to zero. The deviation illustrates that the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure – and unscientific. It’s no different then a serial thief daring the police to stop him. But they never do even though they have the statistical evidence of fraud and a signed confession.

    Let’s first look at the 2010 race.
    FL 2010 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
    Sink won the unadjusted exit poll (3150 respondents) by 50.8-45.3%, a 228,000 vote margin. The adjusted exit poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote which Scott won by 49.6-48.4%, a 62,000 vote margin.

    Just as in presidential election exit polls, the returning 2008 voter percentages were implausible. In the ’Voted in 2010′ crosstab, we see that 47% of 2010 voters were returning Obama voters and 47% returning McCain voters. Obama won the Florida 2008 unadjusted exit poll by 6% So how could there be equal 47% returning voters among the 2010 electorate? This is the standard ‘tell’: the returning voter mix has been adjusted to maximize the Republican vote and minimize the Democratic vote.

    The Florida 2010 Governor Exit Poll was forced to match a bogus recorded vote by adjusting the returning mix of 2008 returning voters. When the mix is changed to reflect the 2008 unadjusted exit poll, Sink is the winner by 50.8-47.1%

    Likewise, the Florida 2014 Governor Exit Poll was forced to match a bogus recorded vote by adjusting the returning mix of 2010 voters. When the returning voter mix is changed to reflect the 2010 unadjusted exit poll, Crist is the winner of the 2-party vote by 52-48%.

    There were nearly 500,000 more voters in 2014 than in 2010. Presumably, this increase in turnout would be expected to help Crist. As mentioned, Sink won the True Vote in 2010. But Scott’s 2014 margin increased by 5,000 votes. This is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats.

    The True Vote Model
    The model data was updated for 2014 using 2010 returning and new voters. The assumptions for the base case scenarion:
    1) Sink’s 52.2% True Vote
    1) 93% turnout of living 2010 voters
    2) Crist has 92.5% of returning Sink voters
    3) Crist has 6.9% of returning Scott voters
    4) Crist has 54% of new voters.

    In this Base Case scenario, Crist has a 52.0% share and wins by 224,000 votes. The Sensitivity analysis shows Crist’s total vote share and margins for alternative vote share and turnout scenarios.

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