From Richard Charnin:
In previous posts, we have noted the dramatic 7% difference between Obama’s Election Day and late recorded share in both 2008 and 2012. In this post, we will focus on the corresponding third-party vote shares. In each election , the third-party late share was more than double the Election Day share – a virtual statistical impossibility.
Since the late vote is a close match to the True Vote (as it appears to be based on the 2008 state exit polls and 2008/2012 True Vote Model), and the weighted aggregate state Late Vote shares closely match the 2008 and 2012 recorded late shares, then approximately one million votes were switched from third-parties to McCain in 2008 and to Romney in 2012.
In 2008, 121.21 million votes were recorded on Election Day.
Obama led by 52.34-46.31% (1.35% to third-parties).
There were 10.16 million late votes.
Obama led by 59.16-37.48% (3.36% to third-parties).
In 2012, 117.46 million votes were recorded on Election Day.
Obama led by 50.34-48.07% (1.59% to third-parties).
There were 11.68 million late votes.
Obama led by 57.99-38.29% (3.72% to third-parties).