Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes
Dec. 3, 2012
Just like in 2000, 2004, and 2008, the Democrat Obama did much better in the 2012 Late Vote than he did on Election Day. But why should 2012 have been any different? Obama had to overcome the 4-5% fraud factor. In every election, the Late Vote has closely matched the True Vote Model and unadjusted exit polls.
This analysis shows that Obama must have done much better than his 50.93-47.32% margin (of 128.27 million total recorded votes). He leads the 10.84 million late votes by 57.36-39.16%, a 7.0% increase in vote share over his 50.3% Election Day share. In 2008, the results were similar. Obama had 52.87% (of 131 million total votes) and 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes, a 6.3% share increase. About 30 states have yet to count all the votes.
We do not have the 2012 state and national unadjusted polls. In fact just 31 states were exit polled. All we have are the adjusted polls that are always forced to match the recorded vote.