So how is it that Prop 37 “lost”?

MCM

From Paul Lehto:

The number of uncounted/unprocessed ballots in California is at least 3,334,495 as of the last statewide update. See
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/2012-elections/nov-general/pdf/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf   Only 3 of California’s many counties are done counting ballots.  Id. In LA County alone the number is 796,000 or the better part of a million ballots.  For whatever reasons, it’s still posted nearly everywhere that California has “100% precincts reporting” and lots of people confuse this with 100% of votes counted when the two are quite different.

These unprocessed ballots are always fairly heavily Democratic overall in California and nationwide, and I suspect AZ as well.

Even if we assume that nothing is amiss in any state, the many millions of ballots that remain uncounted at this point and yet are heavily Democratic means that the conventional wisdom on the outcome of the election hardens and solidifies days and weeks before these Democratic numbers are quietly updated.  Because the conventional wisdom of the week after the election controls something like 99% of the meaning and impact of the election (later posted higher numbers, when they finally occur) are blips or footnotes to history already made), the slow counting of both vote by mail, absentee and provisional ballots operate almost exactly the same is if these millions of ballots nationwide were simply tossed in the trash.

Data is readily available showing how the late-counted ballots were in the range of 55 to 65% Democratic in 2004 and 2008.  People who don’t know the numbers of uncounted ballots and their trends are nevertheless printing “final” pieces on the election stating things like “where Obama underperformed” relative to 2008 when they simply don’t know that yet and it’s mostly too early to tell.

Paul Lehto, J.D.



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