From Richard Charnin:

In each of the presidential elections from 2000 to 2008, the Democrats did much better in the late votes recorded after Election Day.

In 2008, Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Election Day.
He had 59% of the 10 million votes recorded after Election Day.

In 2012, the same anomaly is being repeated. And the votes are still coming in.

Nov.8 – Obama led by 50.34-48.07% (117.45 million recorded votes)
Nov.9 – he led by 50.43-47.97% (119.58 million recorded)
Nov.10- he led by 50.51-47.87% (122.20 million recorded)

Obama leads by 54.65-42.96% in the 4.75 million late recorded votes.

Why would the late votes always show an increase in the Democratic vote share?

– Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive on the part of the perennial vote thieves to continue switching late votes? Plausible.
– Could it be that the late votes are paper ballots (provisionals, absentees) and not from DREs? Absolutely.
– Could it be that the late votes are coming in from Democratic strongholds? Maybe some, but surely not all.

One Comment to “Late votes are skewing Democratic, as they did in ’00, ’04 & ’08. Why? For one thing, because they’re PAPER BALLOTS.”

  • 11/26 Late Vote Update:

    Obama leads by 56.5-40.4 (9.41 million late votes).

    In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.

    Base case assumptions:

    1. Obama had a 58% vote share in 2008
    He had 58.0% in the state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) and in the True Vote Model. Obama won the National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.

    2. Obama had a 59% two-party share of new voters.
    He had 73% (two-party) of new voters in 2008.

    There are two sets of scenarios:

    1) 2012 Vote shares
    Base Case: Obama has 92% of Obama and 5% of returning McCain voters.
    (Net 3% defection of returning Obama voters for Romney).

    In 2004, Obama had 89% of returning Kerry voters and 17% of Bush.
    (He had 72% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2004).

    2) Returning 2008 Voter turnout
    Base case: Equal 92% turnout of living Obama and McCain voters.

    Base Case: Obama wins by 16 million votes with a 56.4% (two-party) share.

    I. 2012 Vote shares: Worst case scenario
    Obama has 88% of returning Obama and 1% of returning McCain
    (net 11% defection advantage to Romney).
    Result: Obama has 52.8% (2-party) and wins by 7 million votes.

    II. 2008 Voter turnout in 2012: Worst case scenario
    77% of living Obama voters and 100% of McCain voters turn out.
    Result: Obama has 51.8% (two-party) and wins by 4.5 million. votes.
    This scenario closely matches the recorded vote.

    Late Vote Share vs. Election Day Share

    The late vote timeline shows that Obama’s lead is steadily increasing. But the small incremental changes in his total share are misleading. One must consider the difference between the total Late Vote and Election Day shares.

    Obama leads the 9.41 million late votes by 56.5-40.4%. These are recorded votes, not exit polls. Once again, as in every election since 2000, the late Democratic late share exceeded the Election Day share by approximately 5%.

    Obama vote margins:
    Total vote: 50.8-47.5 (3.3% margin, 126.87 million votes.
    Election Day: 50.3-48.1 (2.2%, 117.45 million votes).
    Late vote: 56.5-40.4 (16.1%, 9.41 million votes).

    Weighted late vote: 53.3-42.8 (10.5% margin). Late state vote shares are weighted by total votes cast. The solid margin largely refutes the argument that the late votes are not representative of the electorate.

    2-party shares and margins:
    51.7-48.3 Election Day Recorded share (3.4%)
    55.5-44.5 Late Vote share weighted by total recorded vote (11.0%)
    58.3-41.7 Unweighted Late Vote share (16.6%)
    56.4-43.6 True Vote Model (12.8%)

    2012 Late Vote Timeline
    On……Obama led by…
    Nov. 8 50.34-48.07% of 117.45 million recorded votes)
    Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
    Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
    Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
    Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
    Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
    Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
    Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
    Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)

    Obama’s Late Vote shares exceed his Election Day shares in the following states. Total late votes are shown in thousands. In states with fewer than 3000 late votes, the late vote share was assumed equal to the recorded share. This simplified the calculation of the weighted late vote share.

    St EDay Late (000)
    AZ 43.4 47.6 666
    CA 59.1 61.5 3011
    CO 51.3 55.4 184
    CT 50.9 59.8 1311
    FL 49.9 57.8 166
    GA 45.4 49.5 47
    IA 51.8 63.4 24
    IL 57.4 67.4 119
    IN 43.8 53.9 87
    MI 53.3 77.3 199
    MN 52.6 64.5 7
    MO 44.3 75.4 7.5
    NE 37.8 50.5 22
    NM 52.9 60.4 13
    NV 52.3 69.4 3.4
    OR 53.4 58.3 311 (100% hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots)
    SC 43.9 47.4 111
    TX 41.4 44.5 45
    VA 50.6 64.7 160
    WA 55.2 57.6 1188

    Obama’s Election Day share was higher than his Late share in
    NJ 58.6 55.1 146
    NY 60.4 52.9 22
    PA 52.5 34.9 185

    In Ohio, Obama’s share of 50,000 late votes declined from 50.3% on Election Day to 32.3%. Romney’s share also declined from 48.2% to 39.2%. Other third parties gained from 1.7% to 28.5%. In North Carolina, the Election Day recorded vote has declined by 4,000.

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