From Victor Provenzano:

Mark,

Thus far, the 4 national tracking polls have registered an infinitesimal combined net gain of 0.375% for Mitt Romney now that one and a half days (Wednesday night and Thursday) have passed since the debate:

(1) The Rasmussen poll shows the race has not moved in either direction
(2) The Gallup poll shows Obama gaining 1%
(3) The Rand poll shows Obama gaining 1.5%
(4) The online Ipsos poll shows Mitt gaining 4%

Taking all 4 national tracking polls into account, Obama gained a combined 2.5% (in 2 out of the 4 polls) while Mitt gained a combined 4% (in only one poll), which yields a net gain for “Willard” of 0.375%. He won by a long shot! Those 4 polls include a small number of voters who saw the debate on Wednesday night as well as a fuller national sample on Thursday of those who did and did not see the debate.

The only statistical effect thus far is in some of the state polls: in Nevada (where Mitt is now down only 4.6% on average), in Ohio (where Mitt is now down a mere 3%), in Virginia (where Mitt is now behind a minuscule 0.4%), and in Florida (where Mitt is now even with Obama). This movement in the state polls, however, probably has more to do with Rasmussen’s strong Republican bias—-along with the effect of Karl Rove’s recent media spending—-than it does with the recent debate.

Most debates have little if any effect on the outcome of the presidential race since the public has more or less made up its mind before the series of debates begin in the fall. A third of the time, a “win” consists in a net gain of only around 1% for one of the candidates, while a “big win” consists in a net gain of about 3%. In 1980, for instance, Ronald Reagan made a series of major gaffes yet “won” the debate against Jimmy Carter by repeating the phrase “there you go again” gaining a “stunning” 2.8% as a result.



Post comment

Forbidden Bookshelf

Forbidden Bookshelf




“While We Were Sleeping”

While We Were Sleeping is an urgent call to save Greenwich Village from New York University's uncontrolled expansion.

Click here to donate to NYUFASP and receive a copy of "While We Were Sleeping: NYU and the Destruction of New York" (minimum donation to receive a book is $10 plus $8 shipping).

Orwell Rolls In His Grave, featuring MCM – Buy the DVD



About News From Underground

News From Underground is a daily e-news service run by Mark Crispin Miller, a Professor of Culture and Communication at NYU. It is based on his belief that academics, like reporters, have a civic obligation to help keep the people well-informed, so that American democracy might finally work.

If you'd like to receive updates delivered to your inbox daily, sign up for News From Underground Alerts:

Help News From Underground!





Message from Mark: "I am a one-man operation, although assisted greatly by some volunteers, and, now and then, by people paid by others for one-time projects. There is no shortage of skilled, dedicated folks out there who want to help me. There is, however, nothing I can pay them with, unless you decide you can contribute something."

Please donate via the PayPal button above or via PayPal by email to: markcrispinmiller@gmail.com

Recent Posts

Recent Comments

Popular Posts

Blogroll

Need a bigger font size?




Sponsored Links



  • Your link could be here too, contact us for pricing details.