Rove’s—er, Romney’s—”win” depends on the exciting fiction that the candidates are running “neck and neck,” as these “upset victories” are more believable in races spun successfully as “close.”

This poll demolishes that propaganda line, while largely reconfirming Richard Charnin’s True Vote finding that Obama is 8 points ahead:


The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll

The RAND American Life Panel (ALP) offers a unique perspective on voter intent as we near the 2012 presidential election.

Election Forecast

The Election Forecast provides our best forecast of the popular vote based on the responses that panelists provided in the past week. The gray band indicates if the difference between the estimates for the two candidates is statistically significant. If the lines for Obama and Romney lie outside the gray band, then with at least 95-percent confidence we can say that one candidate would win the election if on election day the citizens vote as they now anticipate. It is important to note that if the lines are within the gray band then the observed differences may be due to chance.

It is also important to note that the predictions combine the percent chance of voting for a candidate with the percent chance that a respondent will actually vote. For example, if someone says in response to the first question that he or she has a 50-percent chance of actually voting, then this person’s response to the question of who they will vote for gets a “weight” of 50 percent in the calculation of our prediction (which is then further weighted by the percent chance that he or she says that they are likely to vote for their chosen candidate).

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