How Obama’s really doing—and how Romney, if he “wins,” will have to do it

Updated Daily: Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Forecast Model
Richard Charnin

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. The election is assumed to be held on the latest poll date. Link to this post for the daily update summary. This worksheet contains the weekly polling trend analysis.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. The simulation uses the latest state polls. Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.


  • Obama has 300 expected electoral votes and a 96.8% win probability (484 of 500 simulated elections).
  • He leads the state poll weighted average by 48.2-46%.
  • He leads in 14 of 18 Battleground states by 50-47.9% with 138 of 205 EV.
  • Obama leads the RCP National Poll average by 47.1-47%.

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