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With Walker “up” by just 1 point in latest WI poll, he’ll likely “win” by 2 or 3 or even more

And then what will WI Dems do? Anything?

MCM

WI-Gov: A brand-new Marquette Law School poll has GOP Gov. Scott Walker up just 48-47 over Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett among likely voters, though former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk trails by a wider margin, 49-43. Barrett also leads Falk 38-21 in the Democratic primary. What’s particularly interesting is that the race has actually tightened since Marquette’s last poll, in spite of the fact that Walker has spent $8.6 million since January (not counting what his allies have forked out)—vastly more than Democrats have. However, Democrats actually perform slightly better among registered voters, suggesting there may be a small but important enthusiasm gap favoring the other side. Click through for all the numbers and our full analysis at Daily Kos Elections.

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3 replies on “With Walker “up” by just 1 point in latest WI poll, he’ll likely “win” by 2 or 3 or even more”

True Vote Model Analysis

Barret should win easily – assuming ZERO fraud.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDRwcWRPTUZoZk53YUlxOEVMT0FnX3c#gid=23

These are CONSERVATIVE assumptions (favoring Walker):

1- Obama won WI in 2008 with 60% (he had 56.2% recorded and 63.2% exit poll)

2- Returning Voter Turnout: (net 5% to Walker)
Obama voters : 65%
McCain voters: 70%

3- Voter Defection (net 5% to Walker)
Obama: 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 5% of returning McCain voters

Barrett still wins 54.6-45.4% (198,000 votes)
Walker needs to steal 8.4% of Barrett’s votes..
—————————————————————–
Assume equal 70% turnout: :
Barrett wins 56.2% (267,000 votes).
Walker needs to steal 11% to win.

Assume zero net defection::
Barrett wins 59% (387,000 votes).
Walker needs to steal 15% to win/.

Typo correction:

3- Voter Defection (net 5% to Walker)
BARRETT wins 90% of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters
WALKER wins 10% of returning Obama voters and 95% of returning McCain voters

Barrett Worst Case Scenarios
(he still wins in a fair election)

1. 65% turnout of Obama voters; 70% turnout of McCain voters
Barrett: wins 0% of McCain voters and 85% of Obama voters
Result: Barrett has 50.2% and wins by 9,000 votes

2. 60% turnout of Obama voters; 75% turnout of McCain voters
Barrett: wins 5% of McCain voters and 90% of Obama voters
Result: Barrett has 51.8% and wins by 80,000 votes

Implausible Scenarios required for Walker to win a fair election

1. 2008 voter turnout in 2012: 55% Obama; 80% McCain
Vote share: Barrett 90% of Obama voters; 5% of McCain voters
Barrett has 49.1% and loses by 38,000.

2. 2008 voter turnout in 2012: 65% Obama; 70% McCain
Vote share: Barrett 80% of Obama voters; 5% of McCain voters
Barrett has 49.4% and loses by 25,000.

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