With Walker “up” by just 1 point in latest WI poll, he’ll likely “win” by 2 or 3 or even more

And then what will WI Dems do? Anything?

MCM

WI-Gov: A brand-new Marquette Law School poll has GOP Gov. Scott Walker up just 48-47 over Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett among likely voters, though former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk trails by a wider margin, 49-43. Barrett also leads Falk 38-21 in the Democratic primary. What’s particularly interesting is that the race has actually tightened since Marquette’s last poll, in spite of the fact that Walker has spent $8.6 million since January (not counting what his allies have forked out)—vastly more than Democrats have. However, Democrats actually perform slightly better among registered voters, suggesting there may be a small but important enthusiasm gap favoring the other side. Click through for all the numbers and our full analysis at Daily Kos Elections.

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3 thoughts on “With Walker “up” by just 1 point in latest WI poll, he’ll likely “win” by 2 or 3 or even more”

  1. True Vote Model Analysis

    Barret should win easily – assuming ZERO fraud.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDRwcWRPTUZoZk53YUlxOEVMT0FnX3c#gid=23

    These are CONSERVATIVE assumptions (favoring Walker):

    1- Obama won WI in 2008 with 60% (he had 56.2% recorded and 63.2% exit poll)

    2- Returning Voter Turnout: (net 5% to Walker)
    Obama voters : 65%
    McCain voters: 70%

    3- Voter Defection (net 5% to Walker)
    Obama: 90% of returning Obama voters
    Obama 5% of returning McCain voters

    Barrett still wins 54.6-45.4% (198,000 votes)
    Walker needs to steal 8.4% of Barrett’s votes..
    —————————————————————–
    Assume equal 70% turnout: :
    Barrett wins 56.2% (267,000 votes).
    Walker needs to steal 11% to win.

    Assume zero net defection::
    Barrett wins 59% (387,000 votes).
    Walker needs to steal 15% to win/.

  2. Typo correction:

    3- Voter Defection (net 5% to Walker)
    BARRETT wins 90% of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters
    WALKER wins 10% of returning Obama voters and 95% of returning McCain voters

  3. Barrett Worst Case Scenarios
    (he still wins in a fair election)

    1. 65% turnout of Obama voters; 70% turnout of McCain voters
    Barrett: wins 0% of McCain voters and 85% of Obama voters
    Result: Barrett has 50.2% and wins by 9,000 votes

    2. 60% turnout of Obama voters; 75% turnout of McCain voters
    Barrett: wins 5% of McCain voters and 90% of Obama voters
    Result: Barrett has 51.8% and wins by 80,000 votes

    Implausible Scenarios required for Walker to win a fair election

    1. 2008 voter turnout in 2012: 55% Obama; 80% McCain
    Vote share: Barrett 90% of Obama voters; 5% of McCain voters
    Barrett has 49.1% and loses by 38,000.

    2. 2008 voter turnout in 2012: 65% Obama; 70% McCain
    Vote share: Barrett 80% of Obama voters; 5% of McCain voters
    Barrett has 49.4% and loses by 25,000.

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