Walker’s “win” will make it easier for Romney to “defeat” Obama (2 ITEMS)

Wisconsin recall election: Scott Walker’s fate will have November implications
By Dan Balz, Published: May 26

MILWAUKEE — Evan Bradtke, a 20-year-old college student, spends time these days working out of a small, windowless room in a nondescript suite of offices a few miles outside Madison, Wis. Hour after hour he calls voters, urging them to turn out on June 5 to support embattled Republican Gov. Scott Walker.

Walker made national headlines last year when he eliminated most collective-bargaining rights for public employee unions, triggering huge protests. The fight put friends, neighbors and family members on opposite sides and left the state as polarized as any in the nation. It will culminate in next month’s recall election, only the third for a sitting governor in U.S. history.

But there is more at stake on June 5 than the question of whether Walker remains in office or is replaced by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. To Bradtke, saving Walker’s job is a crucial step toward making Wisconsin a competitive battleground in November and electing a Republican president who deals with budgetary issues nationally the way Walker has in Wisconsin.

Read more.


Democrats, losing ground in Wisconsin, play down recall election
By David Lauter
May 27, 2012, 6:00 a.m.

WASHINGTON — Recent polls have pointed toward a victory for Republican Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin’s June 5 recall election. But here’s the clearest evidence to date that national Democratic party officials believe their side is losing: Democratic officials are playing down the potential impact.

Democratic National Committee chairwoman Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) insisted in a television interview that a loss for the Democratic candidate in the recall, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, won’t have any implications for other races, such as the presidential election.

“I think, honestly, there aren’t going to be any repercussions,” Wasserman Schultz said onC-SPAN’s “Newsmakers” program. “It’s an election that’s based in Wisconsin.”

Read more.

1 reply on “Walker’s “win” will make it easier for Romney to “defeat” Obama (2 ITEMS)”

The Walker Recall: Is the Past Prologue?

Richard Charnin
May 24, 2012

In a previous Walker recall election analysis the Wisconsin True Vote Model indicated that Barrett would win in a fair election with 53-54%.

The purpose of this analysis is to determine what it took for Walker to win in 2010 – and how this information may provide insight into what we can expect in the recall. Walker defeated Barrett by 125,000 recorded votes (52.2-46.6%). Approximately 69% of 2008 voters turned out in 2010.

The base case assumption in the 2012 Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model is that Obama had a 60% vote share. This estimate was based on the average of his 63-35% Wisconsin exit poll margin and 56-42% recorded margin. The 14% discrepancy is a very strong indicator that Obama did much better than his 56% official share. In other words, the election was fraudulent.

The 2010 Election

Approximately 69% of 2008 voters turned out in the 2010 Wisconsin Governor race. The exit poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Walker 52.2-46.6%).

In order to achieve the match, the exit pollsters showed that 49% of the Wisconsin electorate were returning Obama and 43% returning McCain voters. The spread is significantly lower than the 14% recorded margin. It implied that that 66% of Obama voters and 77% of McCain voters returned in 2010 – a net 11% turnout advantage to Walker.

The exit poll also indicates that Barrett had 83% of Obama voters and 7% of McCain voters – a net 10% defection of returning voters to Walker.

In addition, 3% of 2010 voters were returning third-party. The remaining 5% did not vote in 2008. Unfortunately, the poll does not indicate how they voted (n/a). But Walker needed to win these voters by a 20% margin in order to match the recorded vote.

To summarize, in order to match the recorded vote, the Final adjusted 2010 Wisconsin exit poll assumed
1) ZERO fraud in 2008 and
2) McCain voter turnout exceeded Obama by 11%.
3) 16% of Obama voters defected to Walker and 7% of McCain voters to Barrett.
4) Walker had a 20% margin in new and returning third-party voters.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.