From Jonathan Simon of the Election Defense Alliance:
Mark, just a quick gloss on this:
“As the Election Defense Alliance showed in a meticulous analysis, Brown ‘won’ handily (by over 5%) wherever votes were counted electronically—but, in those few districts where the ballots were hand-counted in the open, Scott Brown lost to Martha Coakley (by almost 3%).”
Although the number of ballots counted by hand was just a couple of percent of the total in the state, there were actually a lot more than a “few” districts (71 out of a total of 351) where that hand-counting took place. The phrase “those few districts” could leave the impression that the hand-count/machine-count disparity derived from only a tiny subset of voters. In fact, the hand-count “sample” was not only huge in statistical terms, but also fairly extensive geographically (i.e., not just a couple of weird enclaves).
The real statistical point of our analysis was that the hand-count voters were to the right of what would have been a random, representative sample. If the sample had been representative, the odds against an 8% marginal spread between hand-counts and opscan counts were truly astronomical (literally quadrillions to one); and the “sample” was to the right of that, which only increased those odds. That is as close to numerical “proof” as it gets.
“While We Were Sleeping”
Orwell Rolls In His Grave, featuring MCM – Buy the DVD
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