While there’s no evidence that Bush won in 2004, there’s quite a lot that proves he lost

From Nigel Watson:


To believe Bush Won in 2004…

I’ve gone easy on the truly disgusting news on the wholesale theft of our elections in the RoveRageEra – 1994-present. The man (Rove) may be evil incarnate, but he is also, alas, a stone genius at what he does. He’s learned his craft well (the craft of craftiness, as it were) since his early “prank” of borrowing the op’s campaign letterheads. The pathological among us make far more interesting studies.

The dismal truth is that one man’s twisted and relentless drive to vanquish all before him – by any means necessary, and I mean any– has resulted in our signal experiment in democracy being twice saddled with a cruel and petty birdbrain of a nowhere-man being fraudulently foisted on the Oval Office for 8 interminable years.

Add to that the host (as in, most) of other “close” races that “unexpectedly” (the word of the decade for both election results and economic recovery) turned in the GOP’s favor at the last minute, over the past decade, and you have what I’ve dubbed:

The Magical, Mystical Minority Majority As Andy Bacevich said, “Can anyone undo the mess this gang has left us with”?

Much election-theft news gets pretty dense and arcane – one really needs an abiding interest to follow this tortuous trail. While all of the items in Richard Charnin’s rundown are persuasive, for some of it, you really need to love statistics, probablistic analysis, loads of yummy, if depressing, charts, and the like. I’m guessing that few have the time or the inclination to want to know how this watch is built.

But, to quickly tell the hour (hint, it’s getting late) on this damning timepiece of intrigue and dark deeds, of Charnin’s 3-dozen Myths, I will point out 3 “smoking gun” items.

All are in plain English; no degree necessary. I have a hard time following some of Richard’s work myself. What I do understand is that the brilliance of Charnin’s forensics is equal to the dastardly level of Karl Rove’s reptilian skullduggery (hey, helluva sentence, Nige). emphases added

#18- Myth: There is nothing suspicious about the fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush. Fact: But 14 deviated beyond the margin of errora virtual ZERO probability.

#27- Myth: Returning Gore voters misrepresented their 2000 vote because they wanted to be associated with the winner – Bush. Fact: Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day. The majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents who gave him 25-30% approval. Gore, not Bush, was the popular vote winner in 2000. So why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? It makes no sense.

#36- Myth: Polling data was cherry-picked and assumptions biased for Kerry. Fact: The following models used exit poll data provided by exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky, including partisan response rates and within precinct error (WPE). The models produced equivalent results, confirming the USCV simulation of 1250 precincts which debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.

a) The Precinct Exit Poll Response Optimizer Model: 1250 precincts categorized five partisanship groups: Strong Bush, Bush, Even, Kerry, Strong Kerry. Kerry won the 2-party share: 52.15-47.85%.

b) The Location Optimizer: Big Cities, Small Cities, Suburban, Small Towns, Rural: Kerry by 52.15-47.85%

c) The State Optimizer: Kerry 52.3-47.7%

d) The 12:22am NEP “Voted in 2000” demographic: Kerry 51.9-48.1%

e) The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: Kerry 52.5-47.5%

So, to sum up, Bush beat Kerry because…

1) every E.S.T. state was moving in the direction of a sitting Prez with a 48% approval;

2) returning Gore voters (poor dears) were so abashed from 2000 that they voted for the guy they wouldn’t vote for before, despite having given Ol’ Al a of a half-million vote plurality of the popular vote 4 years previous; and…

3) 5 independent polling methods, using identical exit poll data, arrived at conclusions within less than one point of each other, with all showing Bush on the short end.

Square those circles, why don’t ya—a/k/a, give me a break! Some of that stuff doesn’t even pass the giggle test.

You can read the entire sorry list here:

rig 2004 MYTHS & FACTS RE SHRUB’s ALLEGED RE-ELECTION  richardcharnin  09-30-11

 and this just in…

from the GOP’s Low-Tech (uh, thug) Division’s version of a GOTV* Campaign:

rig POSTER CHILD FOR GOP’s REAL ‘VOTER I.D’ AGENDA  + a bonus of FACT-FREE RACIST COMMENTS  timesfreepress  10-05-11

 * Gut Other Tribes’ Voters

Nigel Watson
Blog: ORBizen Memo