Obama lost 5% to fraud in 2008. There is no reason to expect that the fraud factor will decrease in 2012.
But Obama’s unpopular with his 2008 base. Assume that his 2008 True 58% share is reduced to 55%. With a further 5% reduction due to election fraud, it’s a virtual dead heat.
And the analysis does not even factor in all the new disenfranchised voters…