Unadjusted 2008 State Exit Polls: Further Confirmation of the True Vote Model
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Sept. 20, 2011
Go here for the full 8-table analysis:
I just found the 2008 unadjusted presidential state exit polls on the Roper website and do not know how long they have been available. But as far as I know, they have never been analyzed; so I have analyzed them.
It is instructive to see how the polls compare to the recorded vote and the True Vote Model (TVM). The basic results are not surprising:
Obama did better in the polls (58.1%) than the vote count (52.9%).
But the Democrats always do better in the polls. What is surprising is that he did 5.2% better – exactly matching the TVM. By way of comparison, Kerry did 3.7% better
in the unadjusted exit polls (52%) than in the recorded vote (48.3%). He had 53.6% in the TVM.
The 2008 unadjusted state exit polls confirm the TVM. The national aggregate (Table 1) exactly matched Obama’s 58.1% TVM share (Table 3). It indicates that Obama won a 22 million vote landslide, far exceeding his 9.5 million recorded vote margin. The TVM uses Final 2008 NEP vote shares but with a feasible mix of returning Kerry and Bush voters reflecting Kerry’s 7% True Vote margin.
The key result is the state exit poll aggregate vote share. The national sample size was approximately 80,000. The average state exit poll margin of error was 3.35% (including a 30% “cluster” effect). The margin of error was exceeded in 37 states; in 2004 it was exceeded in 29. Of the 50 states and DC, 45 shifted to McCain from the exit poll. The difference in margin between the exit poll and the recorded vote is the average Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). The WPD was 10.6 in 2008, far above the 7.4 in 2004.
The True Vote Model has closely matched the unadjusted state and national exit polls in every presidential election since 1988. In the 11 presidential elections from 1968 to 2008, the Republicans had a 49-45% recorded vote margin while the Democrats had a 49-45% True Vote margin (Table 7).
Tables 1-6 display unadjusted 2004 and 2008 State exit polls, Final National Exit Poll and True Vote Model.
Table 7 displays the 1968-2008 True Vote and the associated returning voter mix.
Table 8 displays returning voter mix and turnout in the 1968-2008 Final National Exit Polls that were required to match the recorded vote.