From Richard Charnin:
The Democrats need to win 3 of 8 GOP seats in the recall elections to gain control of the Wisconsin senate.
Assuming the Wisconsin 2008 presidential election
1) Recorded vote shares and election fraud (expected) in the recall elections, the Democrats will win 1 or 2 GOP seats.
2) Recorded vote shares and zero election fraud in the recalls, the Democrats will likely win 3 GOP seats.
3) True Vote shares and zero fraud in the recalls, the Democrats would likely win 6 GOP seats.