Giannoulias WON in Illinois by 100,000+ votes, True Vote analysis tells us

With Feingold and Sestak also having been “defeated,” that would make three Repub Senators who shouldn’t be there. There are now 47 (or “47”), when there should be (at least) only 44—which means that there should be 54 Democratic Senators, not 51. (There are 2 independents.)

(It’s worth noting that Feingold, Sestak and Giannoulias were notably to the left of, say, Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid.)

We also need to figure out how many Tea-baggers were ACTUALLY elected to the House, and to the nation’s Statehouses.

(And we must ask this question, too: Would Obama really like to have that much less hard-right “opposition”? I bet he wouldn’t, as it would be then be harder for him to pull off his own right-wing agenda—yes, you read that right—if he didn’t have the GOP to blame it on.)


Illinois 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis
Richard Charnin
June 18, 2011

This is an analysis of the 2010 Illinois senate race in which Kirk (Rep) defeated Giannoulias (Dem) by 60,000 recorded votes (49.2-47.6%).

The True Vote analysis indicates that Giannoulias won by more than 100,000 votes.

The Final Illinois 2010 Exit Poll indicated that 56% of the votes recorded were cast by returning Obama voters and 38% by returning McCain voters.

The 2008 Presidential True Vote analysis indicates that Obama won nationally by 58-40% – a 22 million vote margin (only 9.5 million was recorded). Forcing the State and National Exit Polls to match the recorded vote is standard operating procedure. In order to force a match in 2004 and 2008, the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of returning Bush voters from the previous election. The Final Exit Poll is forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the returning voter mix and/or the vote shares. In 2004, the impossible 43% returning Bush 2000 share insufficient to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters had to increase his vote shares as well.

The returning voter mix should reflect the previous election True Vote, not the recorded vote.

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