Wisconsin 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis
June 12, 2011
This is a True Vote analysis of the 2010 Wisconsin senate race. The Final 2010 Wisconsin Senate Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Johnson defeated Feingold by 52-47%). Forcing a match to the recorded vote is standard operating procedure on the part of the exit pollsters. In order to force a match in 2004 and 2008, the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of returning Bush voters from the previous election.
The returning voter mix should reflect the previous election True Vote, not the recorded vote, In 2010, the Final WI senate exit poll was again forced to match the recorded vote. In the Final, the exit pollsters indicate that 49% of the 2010 recorded vote were cast by returning Obama voters and 43% by returning McCain voters. The 49/43 ratio is consistent with Obama’s 7.5% recorded vote margin. But the 2008 True Vote analysis indicates that Obama won by 57-41% – a 22 million vote margin (only 9.5 million was recorded).
It is logical to assume that there were more returning Obama voters than indicated in the 2010 WI exit poll. Therefore, the returning Obama/McCain share (mix) of the 2010 vote was changed from 49/43% to 52/40%. If this was indeed the case, then election fraud may very well have cost Feingold the election. The True Vote analysis indicates that Finegold may have had a 51% vote share.
The Sensitivity Analysis displays Feingold’s vote share for various returning voter and vote share scenarios. Although the Final Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, the Base Case True Vote scenario assumes the Final exit poll vote shares; only the returning voter mix was adjusted. However, it is likely that the vote shares were also adjusted to force the match.
I have included a comparable Oregon analysis. In Oregon, Senator Wyden, a popular progressive like Finegold, was re-elected with 57% share, closely matching Obama’s 56.8% share.
Obama had 56.2% in Wisconsin, 9% above Finegold’s 47% recorded share.