50 consecutive Prosser ballots in a town that voted 75% for Kloppenburg?? His “win” is mathematically impossible (Richard Charnin)

From Richard Charnin (whose full summary of the WI recount, with historical background, is at




As you probably know, I have been downloading the daily GAB recount spreadsheets every day and added additional columns to calculate missing total votes cast, miscounted votes, and day-to-day changes for all 3602 wards. The results were consolidated for all 72 counties.
This single file contains a summary with links to the individual daily spreadsheets.
Why are total votes cast missing for so many wards (and nine full counties) while only the recorded votes are listed?
This is a historical summary of relevant statistical facts and analysis:
Wisconsin: The 1988-2008 True Vote Model

Analyze national and state presidential elections. It is a comprehensive, yet easy-to-use spreadsheet that runs in the Google “Cloud”. Excel is not required – anyone can run it.

View tables and a trend graph of state and national Exit Poll and True Vote discrepancies from the recorded vote.



Wisconsin vs. Oregon

1988-2008 Presidential elections

The average Democratic recorded margin was 5.5% in Wisconsin and 6.3% in Oregon.

Note how closely the WI and OR recorded shares match in each election.

In 2004, Kerry had a 2.4% lower recorded vote share in WI than the exit poll. Wonder why? HAVA drink.


2010 Senate

Wisconsin: Russ Finegold, a well-regarded progressive incumbent, lost re-election by 52-47%.

Oregon: Ron Wyden, a well-regarded progressive incumbent, won re-election by 57-41%.

That is a 21% net difference in margin.

Wyden’s winning margin matched Obama in Oregon.


2008 Presidential Election vs. 2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court Election

Prosser leads by 7,000 out of nearly 1.5 million votes.

In 2008, Obama had 56.2% of the recorded vote, a 415,000 vote margin out of nearly 3 million votes.


Considering the heavy union turnout, how did Kloppenburg’s vote share decline by 6.5% from Obama’s?

Kloppenburg did better than Obama in 10 small counties (total 50,000 votes) but worse in 10 large counties (550,000 votes).


In Milwaukee County, Obama had 67.3%, Kloppenburg 56.4% of 229,000 votes. Why the 10.9% decline?

In Waukesha County, Obama had 36.6%, Kloppenburg 26.2% of 125,000 votes. Why the 10.4% decline?


In Waukesha, McCain defeated Obama by 59,813 votes out of 233,435 recorded.

Prosser defeated Kloppenburg by a nearly identical 59,505 votes out of just 125,070.

Quite a gain.


Amazing: 50 Consecutive Prosser Base Hits

A recount observer claimed that there were 50 consecutive ballots for Prosser in Verona, a city in which Kloppenburg had 75%.

If true, it is absolute mathematical proof of fraud.

The simple probability calculation:

Prob = 0.25 ^ 50 or 1 in 1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000 !!!


The probability is the same as that of a baseball player with a .250 BA getting 50 consecutive base hits.

The all-time record for consecutive base hits in major league baseball history is 12. Walt Dropo of the Boston Red Sox did it back in 1950.

There has never been anything close to 50 consecutive base hits. It has never happened – and never will.

The 50 consecutive Prosser ballots could not have happened by accident.

There you go. So what is the explanation? So how did it happen?

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