True Vote Model (TVM) tells us (again): Bush/Cheney lost and Kerry won!

From Richard Charnin:

Run the 1988-2008 True Vote Model (TVM)

The TVM is an easy-to-use analytical model/ database which calculates the True Vote (as well as the official recorded vote) for all state and national presidential elections since 1988. It is more powerful than the previously released 1968-2008 Recursive True Vote Model which was designed to analyze national elections only.

Just a few inputs are required: Election Year, State abbreviation code (or NA for National) and the calculation method (1-5).

Here are a few examples:

2004 National recorded vote as displayed in the Final National Exit Poll (NEP): enter 2004, NA, 5 in the three input cells B5,B6 and B7.

According to the NEP, Bush required a 110% turnout of returning 2000 Bush voters in 2004 in order to achieve his 50.7% recorded share.

2004 National True Vote: enter 2004, NA, 2 

Kerry’s True Vote was approximately 53.3%

2004 Ohio recorded vote: enter 2004, OH, 5 

Bush required 14% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote.

2004, Ohio True Vote: enter 2004, OH, 2

Kerry’s True Ohio vote was approximately 53%.

Optional input allows for changing built-in default assumptions such as prior election voter turnout, allocation of uncounted votes, 4-year voter mortality rate.

The user can ask what-if to override the default vote shares of returning and new voters.

For example: Enter 60% for Kerry’s share of DNV (new) voters and 92% for his share of returning Gore voters.

The main screen contains this link to an introductory TVM overview.

The TVMl consists of a number of  worksheet exhibits. Just click the tab at the bottom of the screen to select one.

The model also contains links to analytical postings for further information.

The True Vote Calculation sheet is a convenient one-page summary PDF.


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