2010 Midterms Analysis:
House Generic, Senate RV/ LV Polls, Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote
by Richard Charnin
The 2010 midterms are history. The typical reaction of the pundits is to promote the conventional wisdom that it was a GOP blowout of epic proportions – even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms.
But the unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote indicates in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.
This analysis utilizes final likely and registered state and national pre-election polls along with preliminary and final exit polls. Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. Since 2000, LV polls have closely matched the recorded vote while RV polls closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls.