The 2010 Midterms Model and Electoral-vote.com: A Forecast Comparison
by Richard Charnin
Since the 2000 election, final projections based on likely voter (LV) polls have been quite accurate in predicting the recorded vote. Registered voter (RV) projections closely matched the unadjusted exit polls and gave the Democrats a 7% higher margin than the LV (i.e. recorded) margin. The True Vote Model gave the Democrats a slightly higher margin (2-3%) than the exit polls.