Everybody’s breathlessly asserting that the Democrats are cooked, and that the Tea-Bag Party will take over Congress on Election Day. Thus the MSM and GOP apparently agree; and so we seem to hear it everywhere, and endlessly.
Here Stephen Herrington points out that this scenario is based on a skewed reading of the polling numbers. If we’re talking “likely voters,” as the MSM keeps doing, the GOP does seem to have a 5-10 point lead. Among the nation’s registered voters, however, the Democrats apparently now hold a 6-point lead.
This matters greatly, because the myth of the GOP’s invincibility could easily function as a self-fulfilling prophecy, by making all that party’s “stunning upset victories”–however inexplicable they actually may be–seem just as natural as the rising of the sun: “Well, of course s/he won!” the press will think, or say, no matter how preposterous the outcome.
“Weren’t the Democrats in trouble all along? After all, that’s what the polling said!” That complacent notion will allow the journalists to keep on comfortably not doing what they ought to do–i.e., investigate all evidence of fraud.
Kudos, then, to Stephen Herrington for making this important point. (And for a helpful complement to his piece, see Richard Charnin’s at http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm.)
The Invisible Six Point Democratic Lead
Stephen Herrington What’s Your Reaction:
The “enthusiasm gap” is driving the midterm election narrative. You hear, everywhere from every MSM and polling source, that the generic ballot shows a 5-10 point lead for the GOP. That lead is constructed entirely on the “likely voter” model. Among likely voters, you hear, the GOP has a 5-10 point lead. Have you ever heard the results of polls of registered voters not qualified by the “likely” modifier?
“While We Were Sleeping”
Orwell Rolls In His Grave, featuring MCM – Buy the DVD
About News From Underground
News From Underground is a daily e-news service run by Mark Crispin Miller, a Professor of Culture and Communication at NYU. It is based on his belief that academics, like reporters, have a civic obligation to help keep the people well-informed, so that American democracy might finally work.
If you'd like to receive updates delivered to your inbox daily, sign up for News From Underground Alerts:
Help News From Underground!
Message from Mark: "I am a one-man operation, although assisted greatly by some volunteers, and, now and then, by people paid by others for one-time projects. There is no shortage of skilled, dedicated folks out there who want to help me. There is, however, nothing I can pay them with, unless you decide you can contribute something."
Please donate via the PayPal button above or via PayPal by email to: email@example.com
- Please HELP FUND this documentary on JFK’s assassination!
- Talkin’ World War One Blues…
- How Australia plans to keep its vaccinated children safe from illnesses that they can’t catch
- On the mass delusion now afflicting liberals (and putting all of us at risk)
- There’s actually more evidence in Pizzagate than there is in “Russia-gate.”
- Forbidden Bookshelf on
- Contact Lou Dobbs on
- Forbidden Bookshelf on
- Top US spooks see NO “conclusive evidence” of Russian hacking in Election 2016 on
- How blaming Trump’s “election” on the Russians could force Hillary on us after all—and end US democracy for good… on
- Forbidden Bookshelf
- The strange death of Nancy Schaefer (two items)
- Don't buy these products from Koch Industries!
- There's actually more evidence in Pizzagate than there is in "Russia-gate."
- How NYU squeezes billions from its students—and where that money goes
- Evil GOP Bastards
- The International Human Press
- Cody Lyon
- Veterans for Common Sense
- t r u t h o u t
- Writers Voice
- The Existentialist Cowboy
- Fairness & Accuracy in Reporting
- alias Bruce
- William Betz
- Words of Power
- The Ostroy Report
- Media Matters
- Early America
- Thom Hartmann
- Media Channel
- Democratic Undergroud
- Citizens for Legitimate Government
- Election Defense Alliance
Need a bigger font size?
- Your link could be here too, contact us for pricing details.