Everybody’s breathlessly asserting that the Democrats are cooked, and that the Tea-Bag Party will take over Congress on Election Day. Thus the MSM and GOP apparently agree; and so we seem to hear it everywhere, and endlessly.
Here Stephen Herrington points out that this scenario is based on a skewed reading of the polling numbers. If we’re talking “likely voters,” as the MSM keeps doing, the GOP does seem to have a 5-10 point lead. Among the nation’s registered voters, however, the Democrats apparently now hold a 6-point lead.
This matters greatly, because the myth of the GOP’s invincibility could easily function as a self-fulfilling prophecy, by making all that party’s “stunning upset victories”–however inexplicable they actually may be–seem just as natural as the rising of the sun: “Well, of course s/he won!” the press will think, or say, no matter how preposterous the outcome.
“Weren’t the Democrats in trouble all along? After all, that’s what the polling said!” That complacent notion will allow the journalists to keep on comfortably not doing what they ought to do–i.e., investigate all evidence of fraud.
Kudos, then, to Stephen Herrington for making this important point. (And for a helpful complement to his piece, see Richard Charnin’s at http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm.)
The Invisible Six Point Democratic Lead
Stephen Herrington What’s Your Reaction:
The “enthusiasm gap” is driving the midterm election narrative. You hear, everywhere from every MSM and polling source, that the generic ballot shows a 5-10 point lead for the GOP. That lead is constructed entirely on the “likely voter” model. Among likely voters, you hear, the GOP has a 5-10 point lead. Have you ever heard the results of polls of registered voters not qualified by the “likely” modifier?