Here is Richard Charnin’s powerful analysis of the "official" National Exit Poll results for the 2008 election. As he makes very clear, those numbers are preposterous.
For example, the final NEP for the ’08 election tells us that there were 5.25 million returning third-party voters (4% of the electorate). This is impossible, as there had been only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004.
And, according to the final ’08 NEP, that election saw a quite incredible turnout of 103% of the total recorded Bush voters in 2004. And, according to the final ’08 NEP, that election saw a quite incredible turnout of 103% of
living Bush 2004 voters.
Crunching all the numbers, Charnin finds–and, it would seem, proves–that Obama did not win the last election by some 9 million votes, but by over 20 million votes.
So the people’s vote for "change" was not a mere "decisive victory," as the press repeatedly asserted, but a landslide pure and simple.
A Simple Proof that Obama Won by Much More than 9.5 Million Recorded Votes
So what do mainstream pollsters make of Richard’s numbers? What, for example, does the New York Times‘s Nate Silver have to say about them? Does he credit them, or has he found some flaw in Richard’s math or reasoning?
We don’t know, since Silver has refused to say a word about them. On Sept. 30, Richard posted the following comment on Silver’s NYT blog–and, within minutes, that post simply disappeared.
This is how the MSM has always dealt with inconvenient evidence–not by making any argument against it, but by just refusing to discuss it.
Here, below, is Richard’s post (a little rough, just as he typed it). Feel free to urge Nate Silver to reply, or at least explain why he will not.
You gauge polling accuracy by comparing the average results to the recorded vote. You should at some point acknowledge that final LV poll projections have been accurate in matching fraudulent vote shares and that the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote due to systemic Election Fraud.
In fact, final RV poll projections (adjusted for allocation of undecided voters) have closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls that exposed the fraudulent 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections. In each election, the Final National Exit Poll (which is always FORCED to match the recorded vote) required more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive in 2004 and 2008.
But you never mention the F-word. The fraud component is included in my 2010 Midterms House and Senate Forecast Model:
For the record, my 2004 Election Model Monte Carlo simulation gave Kerry 52% and 337 electoral votes, matching the 114,000 sample aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls. The Final 2004 National Exit Poll required 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were living in 2004.
Bush had 50.45 million votes in 2000; the Final 2004 NEP indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters. Given 1.25% annual voter mortality and assuming 97% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters, there could have been no more than 46 million returning Bush voters. So we have over six million Bush phantoms.
Kerry won the 2004 True Vote by nearly 10 million. Yet Rasmussen had a high ranking from from you a few years ago based on his the close match of his LV to the bogus recorded Bush 3 million vote margin.
In 2008, the Election Model predicted 53.1% for Obama (he had 52.9% recorded) and exactly macthed his 365 EV. But it was wrong. The post-election True Vote model (based on the Final 2008 exit poll with a feasible returning voter mix) indicated that he had 57-58% and nearly 420 EV.
The Final 2008 NEP required an impossible 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters to match the recorded vote. Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by 3 million. He had 22% approval on Election Day 2008. So where did all those millions of phantom Bush voters come from? Based on the True 2004 vote, there were 10 million MORE returning Kerry voters than Bush voters.
Go to richardcharnin.com for the proof.