Richard Charnin has just posted “An Introduction to the True Vote Model.” This method offers an invaluable alternative to the other polling numbers out there– all of which are predicated on the blithe (and indefensible) assumption that there’s no election fraud.
Also, Richard has updated and clarified his proof that Obama won in ’08 by over 20 million votes:
So who is Richard, anyway? Some of you have asked. His bio is below, so that you’ll get a sense of his credentials. (Of course, it would be great if other, mainstream pollsters –like, say, Nate Silver–would engage with Richard’s stuff, weigh in on his methodology and try to say exactly how he’s wrong. But, strangely, they’ve so far refused to do it.)
Richard Charnin Bio
Upon graduating from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics, Richard Charnin (“TruthIsAll”) began his career as a numerical control engineer/programmer for a major defense/aerospace manufacturer. In 1976, he moved on to Wall Street as manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for three major investment banks. When personal computers became available in 1982, he converted many of these application programs to spreadsheets. As a software consultant, he has specialized in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. He has an MS in applied mathematics (Adelphi University, 1969) and an MS in Operations Research (Polytechnic Institute of NY, 1973).
The firms for which he worked or consulted include (among many others) Grumman Aerospace, Merrill Lynch, Smith Barney, E.F. Hutton, Chase Manhattan, Bank of Montreal, Algemene Bank of the Netherlands, AT&T, PepsiCo, Eastman Kodak and Nomura Securities.
Charnin never imagined that years later he would become a prolific Internet poster. But after the 2000 election fiasco, he was motivated to develop a robust election forecast model. In July 2004 he began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to useMonte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls. Immediately following the election, he began posting exit poll analyses on a frequent basis. The postings sparked heated debates and attracted hundreds of viewers.