Subject: [e-USE] Cook Political Report makes final predictions
Cook Political Report makes final predictions – dismisses notion that there has been a significant tightening of national polls
by Joe in DC – 11/06/2006 07:31:00 PM
>I’ll take this for _election-eve._ (http://cookpolitical.com/) The
>non-partisan Cook team thinks the Dems. can pick up 20-35 seats in the House, 4-6 in
>the Senate and from 6-8 governors.
>Cook also examines the latest spin that the polls are supposedly tightening,
>and that the GOP is supposedly experiencing a last-minute surge. Just ain’t
>true, Cook says.
>All Monday there was considerable talk that the national picture had
>suddenly changed and that there was a significant tightening in the election. This
>was based in part on two national polls that showed the generic congressional
>ballot test having tightened to four (Pew) and six (ABC/Wash Post) points.
>Seven national polls have been conducted since Wednesday, November 1. They
>give Democrats an average lead of 11.6 percentage points, larger than any
>party has had going into an Election Day in memory. Even if you knock five points
>off of it, it’s 6.6 percentage points, bigger than the advantage that
>Republicans had going into 1994.
>Furthermore, there is no evidence of a trend in the generic ballot test. In
>chronological order of interviewing (using the midpoint of field dates), the
>margins were: 15 points (Time 11/1-3), 6 points (ABC/Wash Post), 4 points
>(Pew), 7 points (Gallup), 16 points (Newsweek), 20 points (CNN) and 13 points
>In individual races, some Republican pollsters see some movement, voters
>”coming home,” in their direction, and/or some increase in intensity among GOP
>voters. All seem to think that it was too little, too late to significantly
>change the outcome. However, it might be enough to save a few candidates. None
>think it is a major change in the dynamics of races, and most remain
>somewhere between fairly and extremely pessimistic about tomorrow’s outcome.