A Survey of the EVIDENCE

The 2006 U.S. Midterms: Another Stolen Election?
by Prof. Michael Keefer

November 4, 2006

During the lead-up to the November 7th
midterm congressional election, the Republican
Party has appeared to be in serious trouble.
George W. Bush’s approval ratings have been so
consistently low (they’re currently hovering
around the mid-30s) that most Republican
candidates for seats in the Senate and the House
of Representatives have been about as eager to be
seen in his company as to fall into the embrace
of a carrier of bubonic plague. The Democrats
have led by growing margins in every one of the
110 generic opinion polls taken since September
2005, and currently hold a more than 14 percent
lead over the Republicans in the “5-poll moving
average” used by pollsters as the most reliable
guide to trends in public opinion.1

On the reasonable assumption that the
Democrats could expect to receive 60 percent of
the undecided vote, the noted polling and
exit-poll analyst who posts at the Progressive
Independent website under the name ‘TruthIsAll’
has calculated their average anticipated share of
the November 7th vote, as of October 28th, to be
57.8 percent. He estimates that in an election
free from fraud, there is a 97.5 percent
probability that Democratic candidates should
garner, on average, more that 56.4 percent of the
votes cast. Even if the Democrats were to win
only half of the undecided vote, they would quite
certainly-in a fraud-free election-recover
control of the House of Representatives, gaining
at least 25 seats. Whether or not they win
control of the Senate as well would depend-again
assuming a clean election-upon the share of the
undecided vote that they receive: the probability
that with two-thirds of the undecided vote the
Democrats would win control of the Senate is
calculated by ‘TruthIsAll’ as 78 percent.2

But it might be premature to get excited
over the prospect of the United States ceasing to
be a one-party state. For if the Republican party
is in trouble with the electorate, American
democracy is in a much more parlous
condition-thanks largely to the devious
machinations of the Bush Republicans. Given the
accumulating evidence of large-scale and
systematic preparations by the Republicans and
their corporate allies for suppression of the
Democratic vote, for mis- or non-counting of the
vote in Democratic strongholds, and for an
unprecedented level of electronic vote-tabulation
fraud, the likelihood of these midterm elections
being clean is approximately zero.

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