I would also place particular emphasis on the recent Italian election
as another example of improbably close results.
Subject: Close elections world-wide: a preliminary, semi-mathematical theory
It hasn’t been remarked, but it is remarkable. World-wide, and most
recently in Mexico, elections have been improbably close, and this
phenomenon began with the 2000 US election.
I say “improbably” because landslides were more common…prior to 2000.
A preliminary, semi-mathematical theory: commencing in 2000, a
world-wide coordinated effort began by the ruling elites in a number
of countries to steal elections using advanced political management
techniques, not excluding black operations such as intimidating
voters, stealing ballots: but restricting the black ops to states and
provinces known to be “key” given the constittional mathematics.
The black ops would be focused only on key districts to avoid
detection and in general the “election management” would be so
focused on “cost effectiveness” as to produce JUST ENOUGH votes to
In a situation where polls (especially informal straw polls and
somewhat more trusty marginal polls such as Zogby) indicated
widespread dissatisfaction with the clear favorite of elites, this
would indeed produce a mathematically improbable result: the “tie”,
where the precision of the election management produces a “just in
This would eliminate Left landslides and create the
self-satisfying, if soured, perception amongst progressives that they
are the “real” elite who unlike the ordinary slob see through the
pretensions of the in-group.
I suggest that statisticians and mathematicians analyze the
probability of situations including 2000 and 2004 in the US and the
Obrador defeat in Mexico.